場(chǎng)外交易每週交易洞察 (03/27/2024)

• Polymesh ($POLYX) 是一種專為受監(jiān)管資產(chǎn)設(shè)計(jì)的機(jī)構(gòu)級(jí)許可區(qū)塊鏈，在貝萊德探索真實(shí)世界資產(chǎn) (RWA) 代幣化領(lǐng)域後，它獲得了市場(chǎng)關(guān)注。

  它的突出反映了人們對(duì)基於區(qū)塊鏈的金融解決方案日益增長(zhǎng)的興趣，使其成為這個(gè)不斷發(fā)展的領(lǐng)域的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。

  7天內(nèi)190%的漲幅顯示了對(duì)該代幣的高需求以及市場(chǎng)對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的興趣。

• Badger ($BADGER) 是一個(gè) DAO，旨在將比特幣作為 DeFi 應(yīng)用的抵押資產(chǎn)。

  Badger DAO 推出了一種合成 BTC 代幣（eBTC），這項(xiàng)功能在 DeFi 借貸中具有巨大的應(yīng)用潛力。

  該穩(wěn)定幣參考比特幣匯率並在以太坊網(wǎng)路上運(yùn)行，使用 Lido 質(zhì)押的以太幣（stETH）作為債券。

  這一目標(biāo)可以透過(guò)實(shí)施旨在提高整個(gè) DeFi 領(lǐng)域的去中心化和資本效率的策略來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。

• Do Kwon 從黑山監(jiān)獄正式釋放後，Terra ($LUNA) 在過(guò)去 7 天內(nèi)上漲了 44.6%。

  強(qiáng)勁的漲勢(shì)也增加了社群媒體平臺(tái)上的熱門首發(fā)，推動(dòng)價(jià)格走高。

整體市場(chǎng)

• 上圖顯示了過(guò)去 30 天的 BTC 價(jià)格走勢(shì)。

• 如前所述，我們預(yù)計(jì)上週 BTC 將從歷史高點(diǎn)下跌，並在 6 萬(wàn)美元水平找到支撐，如上方紅色方框所示。

  對(duì) 6 萬(wàn)美元水平附近比特幣的強(qiáng)勁需求，加上聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)主席鮑威爾的鴿派言論，將比特幣價(jià)格推回 6.8 萬(wàn)美元阻力區(qū)。

• 聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)主席鮑威爾在聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)將利率維持在5.50%後發(fā)表了一些鴿派言論，最新的點(diǎn)陣圖顯示2024年將進(jìn)行三次降息。他還提到聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)計(jì)畫很快就縮減量化緊縮（QT）計(jì)畫。

  鮑威爾的言論以及點(diǎn)陣圖預(yù)期的降息路徑提振了市場(chǎng)情緒，並推高了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)。

  比特幣多頭利用了這種情緒，迫使空頭平倉(cāng)。

  鮑威爾新聞發(fā)布會(huì)的結(jié)果是，比特幣價(jià)格在四個(gè)小時(shí)內(nèi)回到了 6.8 萬(wàn)美元。

• 然而，我們的團(tuán)隊(duì)注意到過(guò)去兩天比特幣價(jià)格出現(xiàn)短期下跌趨勢(shì)。

  69,000 美元的關(guān)鍵水平現(xiàn)在作為支撐。

  如果比特幣價(jià)格跌破 6.9 萬(wàn)美元，則將測(cè)試上行通道的下限。

選擇權(quán)市場(chǎng)

• 上表顯示了 BTC 和 ETH 選擇權(quán)的 25 delta 偏度。

• 由於FOMC會(huì)議後市場(chǎng)情緒有所改善，比特幣和以太坊的價(jià)格從上週的低點(diǎn)上漲，目前橫盤整理。

• The 25-delta skews on BTC options return to positive territory for all tenors. It demonstrates that market sentiment on BTC leans towards a bullish view. The skewness in front-end options is close to zero, indicating that market sentiment is more or less balanced and that there is no clear direction for BTC price in the short term, according to data.

• On the other hand, the 25-delta skews in ETH options do not indicate such a bullish sentiment. In the short to medium term, the skews on ETH options remain negative. Although the skews in the short-term options are less negative than last week's data, it indicates that investors and traders are less willing to hold positive delta positions on Ethereum, and the market is betting on Bitcoin's short to medium-term performance rather than Ethereum's.

Macro at a glance

• Last Wednesday (24-03-20)

  • The Federal Reserve announced that its interest rate would remain at 5.50%, unchanged. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish comments boosted gold, equities, and cryptocurrency markets following the press conference. The dot plot indicates that the Federal Reserve will make three quarter-percentage point cuts in 2024. The market expects the Fed's first rate cut in June.

• Last Thursday (24-03-21)

  • The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 5.25%, unchanged. The Bank's governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that the rate cut decision would be data-driven, and the data indicated that it was in the right direction.

  • Last week, initial jobless claims in the United States totalled 210k, which was in line with the forecast of 212k. As Powell stated in the press following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the strong labour market would not cause the Fed to be concerned about rising inflation.

• On Tuesday (24-03-26)

  • In February, US durable goods orders rose by 1.4% month on month, exceeding the expected 1.2% increase. Durable goods orders have begun to recover from January's 6.9% drop.

  • In March, US Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence was 104.7, lower than expected at 106.9. The lower-than-expected consumer confidence data suggested that consumer demand had eased, which would help to reduce inflation over time.

• This Friday, the PCE price index data will be released, which could provide more clarity to the market if the US inflation rate moves in the direction expected by the Federal Reserve. It will also provide insight into the Fed's rate cuts this year.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• This week, our desk noticed that trading volume increased significantly in the Launchpool while remaining low in other zones.

• Over the last seven days, the Launchpool Zone has seen the greatest percentage increase in volume. Trading volume increased by 80.7%, primarily due to increased trade demand for Shentu ($CTK).

• Convert 監(jiān)控區(qū)域的交易量下降了 14.9%。

  在監(jiān)控區(qū)域的所有代幣中，Enzyme ($MLN) 的交易需求增長(zhǎng)最多，而 JasmyCoin ($JASMY) 的交易需求下降最多。

• 隨著市場(chǎng)橫盤整理，Layer1/Layer2 區(qū)域的成交量也下降了 49.9%。

  大市值的 Layer1 和 Layer2 代幣在本次交易量下降中佔(zhàn)權(quán)重。

為什麼進(jìn)行場(chǎng)外交易？

幣安提供客戶多種方式進(jìn)行場(chǎng)外交易，包括聊天溝通管道和幣安場(chǎng)外交易平臺(tái)(https://www.binance.com/en/otc)，手動(dòng)報(bào)價(jià)、演算法訂單或透過(guò)Binance Convert 自動(dòng)報(bào)價(jià)大宗交易平臺(tái) (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) 和 Binance Convert OTC API。

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