距離比特幣減半還有不到兩週的時(shí)間。
目前看來(lái)，這可能會(huì)在 4 月 20 日星期六發(fā)生，或者最遲在 21 日星期日發(fā)生，除非礦工提前開始關(guān)閉機(jī)器。
然而，隨著 BTC 市值的進(jìn)一步上漲，礦工們應(yīng)該盡量充分利用自己的機(jī)器，直到減半日到來(lái)，因此甚至可以預(yù)計(jì)到 19 日週五。
可以肯定的是，它會(huì)發(fā)生在區(qū)塊號(hào) 840,000，現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)接近區(qū)塊號(hào) 838,300。也就是說(shuō)，只剩下1700多個(gè)區(qū)塊，而平均每9分鐘（甚至更短）就會(huì)開採(cǎi)一個(gè)區(qū)塊，十幾天之內(nèi)，剩下的1700個(gè)區(qū)塊就應(yīng)該全部開採(cǎi)完畢。
預(yù)期減半對(duì)比特幣價(jià)格的影響
過(guò)去，已經(jīng)發(fā)生的三次減半（2012年、2016年和2020年）都對(duì)比特幣的價(jià)格產(chǎn)生了正面影響。然而，這種效應(yīng)在減半幾個(gè)月後才顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)，似乎並不為所有人所熟知。
事實(shí)上，不幸的是，許多現(xiàn)在以超過(guò) 70,000 美元購(gòu)買 BTC 的人可能相信減半後價(jià)格會(huì)上漲更多，但事實(shí)可能恰恰相反。
從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，減半仍可能產(chǎn)生正面影響，但短期來(lái)看可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。
特別是，如果現(xiàn)在購(gòu)買的許多人是出於對(duì)短期效應(yīng)的積極預(yù)期而這樣做的，那麼這種預(yù)期可能會(huì)在減半後的幾天裡令人失望。
目前的情況有可能是一種由於過(guò)度熱情和有點(diǎn)FOMO而產(chǎn)生的小泡沫，如果真是這樣，它仍然注定會(huì)爆炸。
另一方面，一個(gè)完全不同的討論是中長(zhǎng)期可以做什麼，即減半何時(shí)真正開始對(duì)比特幣的價(jià)格產(chǎn)生影響。
然而，投機(jī)者不習(xí)慣等待這麼長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，因此，如果他們的預(yù)期在減半後的幾天裡落空，他們可能會(huì)在過(guò)度熱情的推動(dòng)下開始拋售現(xiàn)在購(gòu)買的東西。
第四次減半後比特幣礦工面臨的問(wèn)題
目前，隨著比特幣價(jià)格上漲，回到7萬(wàn)美元以上，礦工們開始做生意了。
值得注意的是，周平均算力並未達(dá)最高值。事實(shí)上，算力衡量的是礦工之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)程度，並在 3 月 12 日至 13 日期間達(dá)到最高水平，就在 BTC 價(jià)格創(chuàng)下 73,800 美元的歷史新高之前。
然而，目前水準(zhǔn)僅略低（621 Eh/s 與 628 Eh/s 相比），可以肯定的是，如果價(jià)格回到高位，那麼算力記錄也將被打破。
The problem, therefore, will be after the halving, when the miners’ earnings will almost halve.
Fortunately, this is a widely anticipated and well-known event, so all miners already know how to behave. Most likely they will simply turn off the less efficient machines and sell the BTC accumulated so far by squeezing the most out of their machines.
Furthermore, in the weeks following the halving, the difficulty will be updated automatically, making the problem less and less serious, until it simply disappears altogether.
Only in the event that the price of BTC were to collapse, miners could really have big problems, because it is unpredictable.
Instead, as far as the halving of the BTC earned is concerned, this issue should have already been widely taken into consideration by all miners, so the problem from this point of view should already be under control.
The increase in fees
On the other hand, a completely different story is the one concerning the cost of on-chain Bitcoin transactions. This actually depends on the level of network congestion, which is not at all related to the halving.
The increase in the market value of BTC often leads to congestion, as it increases the number of transaction requests to be confirmed.
At this moment there are 120,000 transactions waiting to be validated by miners, and rarely more than 4,000 are validated per block.
Since a block is mined approximately every 9 minutes, it will take at least four and a half hours to clear the queue, and in the meantime, more will definitely be sent to be validated.
However, the fees are not particularly high.
For example, at the beginning of March the median had risen above $7 per transaction, while now it has dropped to $1.3. Still, in mid-March it was well above $3, so the situation in recent days has stabilized.
Today, however, fees could increase again, due to the increase in the price of BTC which increases the number of transactions.
Actually, even in the days immediately following the halving, fees could increase. In fact, it is possible that the hashrate will decrease, and therefore until the difficulty automatically decreases, the blocktime could rise above 10 minutes.
This would reduce the number of daily transactions validated by miners, effectively lengthening the queue of those waiting.
With the automatic adjustment of the difficulty, approximately every two weeks, this issue will be completely absorbed.
The Ordinals
It is worth noting that in the past few days, the transactions of Ordinals on the Bitcoin blockchain have increased again.
For now, this increase has not yet led to a significant increase in fees, but if it were to continue, it could do so.
Fortunately, the current fee level is not very high, so even in the event of a similar scenario, the increase could still be limited.
However, in the past there have been real flames, from this point of view, with very rapid and extensive increases in the number of Ordinals exchanged on-chain.
因此，不排除比特幣鏈上交易的費(fèi)用在未來(lái)幾天可能會(huì)突然大幅上漲。
