昨天到今天，由於消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)（CPI）的影響，比特幣的價(jià)格發(fā)生了什麼變化，真的非常有趣。
事實(shí)上，這是幾天前就開(kāi)始的動(dòng)態(tài)，直到昨天才受到CPI資料的影響，影響時(shí)間相對(duì)較短。
美國(guó)CPI和比特幣價(jià)格的反應(yīng)
我們所說(shuō)的CPI指的是Consumer Price Index，也就是消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)。
昨天，美國(guó)1月CPI新數(shù)據(jù)公佈。
事實(shí)證明，該數(shù)據(jù)不僅差於預(yù)期，最重要的是並不好於 12 月。
至於美國(guó)CPI，2024年1月升至308.4點(diǎn)，12月為306.7點(diǎn)。 這是一個(gè)顯著的增長(zhǎng)，使該指數(shù)甚至高於 9 月的水平。
為了更好地理解這個(gè)問(wèn)題，建議專注於核心通膨數(shù)據(jù)。
核心通膨是聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)決定貨幣政策任何可能變化的參考。
昨天發(fā)現(xiàn)，2024年1月美國(guó)核心通膨並未像12月那樣下降，而是維持在3.9%的年率。
11月份是4%，12月份下降了十分之一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。 不過(guò)，應(yīng)該記住，10 月也是 4%，所以 1 月發(fā)生的情況與 11 月發(fā)生的情況相同。
然而，市場(chǎng)預(yù)期下跌 3.7%，因此反應(yīng)消極。
聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)的貨幣政策
金融市場(chǎng)熱切等待聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)降息。
他們已經(jīng)等待了太久，以至於最近幾個(gè)月他們甚至自欺欺人地認(rèn)為這件事最早可能在三月就發(fā)生了（這件事在二月份不會(huì)有決定）。
然而現(xiàn)在，由於1月核心通膨並沒(méi)有下降，他們不僅對(duì)3月改變了主意，而且對(duì)5月也改變了主意（4月不會(huì)就此做出決定）。
因此，儘管直到前天市場(chǎng)還確信首次降息將在五月發(fā)生，但現(xiàn)在他們對(duì)此表示懷疑。
幾週過(guò)去了，他們已經(jīng)說(shuō)服自己三月不會(huì)降息，因此註意力轉(zhuǎn)移到五月。 從目前的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)似乎不太可能最早在 5 月開(kāi)始降息。
聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)主席鮑威爾表示，可以假設(shè) 2024 年可能會(huì)降息 3 次左右，每次 25 個(gè)基點(diǎn)，如果是這樣的話，至少在 6 月之前不會(huì)降息。
不過(guò)，目前市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)5月開(kāi)始降息的機(jī)率仍為36%，如果假設(shè)6月開(kāi)始降息，則機(jī)率上升至76%。
說(shuō)實(shí)話，降息次數(shù)超過(guò)3次的機(jī)率仍高達(dá)54%。
The markets have therefore been too optimistic about the effectiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy in reducing inflation, and they seem to continue to be so.
Yesterday, however, they changed their mind about May, and it was this change of mind that moved the markets.
The drop in the price of Bitcoin after the publication of the CPI
At the time of data publication, yesterday the price of Bitcoin suddenly dropped from around $50,000 to around $48,300.
However, it was immediately clear that there didn’t seem to be the conditions for a further descent.
On the other hand, even before the publication of the data, it was clear that there could be conditions for a correction, and in fact, yesterday’s correction did not surprise almost anyone. What surprised was the very limited extent of the correction, and above all, the subsequent rebound.
The fact is that on Monday the price of Bitcoin was still around $48,000, and the rise above $50,000 happened in just over three hours.
When such spikes occur, albeit relatively contained, the fact that they happen in a short time always suggests that they may be mini-bubbles, or quick peaks of excessive enthusiasm that then fade as quickly as they took to form.
Instead, not only did the price of Bitcoin stay at $50,000 for more than 24 hours, but the subsequent correction didn’t even erase all the gains as it stopped at $48,300.
Furthermore, it should be added that a week ago the price was still at $43,000, and three weeks ago it was below $39,000. A +30% increase in three weeks for Bitcoin always makes one think of a probable correction, so yesterday’s seemed to be a “phone call”.
The bounce
For these reasons, yesterday almost no one was surprised by the drop below $49,000, but to tell the truth, a possible drop below $48,000 was also expected.
Instead, the correction, unexpectedly, lasted only four hours, then the price stabilized.
Even this morning the price was more or less at $49,600, so many were expecting a day of sideways movement.
At a certain point, however, a real rebound occurred, about 16 hours after the end of yesterday’s correction.
The rebound was so unexpected that the price ended up rising above $51,000, setting new records for the year. In fact, today’s peaks are the highest in over two years, as you have to go back to November 2021 to find similar levels.
In other words, these days Bitcoin is showing great signs of strength.
At this point, it is even legitimate to imagine that the rebound may not even be over, and that it may even hope to exceed 52,000$.
It should be noted that in December 2021 the price fluctuated between $45,000 and $52,000 before dropping to $40,000 in early January 2022. Perhaps this is precisely the current price range of Bitcoin, and if it manages to rise above $53,000, completely new scenarios would open up, in line with those of November 2021 that led to the all-time high of $69,000.
或者，一旦觸及 52,000 美元大關(guān)，它也可能回撤，或許保持在 45,000 美元上方。
然而與此同時(shí)，它的市值再次突破萬(wàn)億美元。
